Will any NASCAR Cup driver actually challenge SVG at Sonoma?

When NASCAR’s top division went to Mexico City for the first time last month, Shane van Gisbergen (SVG) won in the biggest margin of victory seen in any Cup race in over 15 years. Just last week at the Chicago Street Course, he was once again victorious — this time, sweeping the weekend in both Xfinity and Cup races.

Next up is Sonoma, where SVG has already secured pole position. But based on practice and qualifying, is there anyone who could possibly challenge him in the Cup race?

In one-lap speeds, A.J. Allmendinger and Ty Gibbs were the only drivers to go faster than van Gisbergen in practice, qualifying fifth and sixth, respectively. However, Sonoma has a history of producing long green-flag runs. Maintaining that speed over the course of an entire fuel run will be critical in contending for the race win.

While Allmendinger remained fastest of all drivers in five-lap averages, SVG went to the top in the 10-lap and 15-lap averages. Less than half the field ran that many laps, but it was still enough to give a glimpse into who might have the best shot at the win.

Over a 10-lap run, it was SVG’s own teammate, Ross Chastain, as the driver of the No. 1 Trackhouse was about two tenths off van Gisbergen’s pace over when averaging ten consecutive laps. He also qualified fourth on the grid. That margin to Chastain widened to almost four tenths over the course of a 15-lap run in practice.

Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet

Photo by: Meg Oliphant / Getty Images

Christopher Bell was another driver who showed strength over the long run, sitting third behind the Trackhouse teammates in the 10-lap run, and rising to second in the 15-lap averages. Bell’s qualifying effort was solid enough, placing tenth overall.

It’s also worth noting that Gibbs was inside the top five in both 10-lap and 15-lap averages. He has also proven himself to be one of the closest drivers on pace to SVG in the recent races at Mexico City and Chicago. He earned a runner-up finish to the former Supercars champion one week ago and was a true challenge in Mexico until he ended up on the wrong side of a mid-race caution.

The only thing going against Gibbs is that he is winless in his first 106 starts as a NASCAR Cup Series driver.

We can’t forget Kyle Larson, who really needs a strong weekend. He was fourth in the 10-lap averages and fifth in the single-lap speeds. The Hendrick Motorsports driver is also the defending winner at Sonoma, so that’s certainly something he has going for him. He wasn’t as strong in qualifying, timing in 11th overall.

Some other drivers to watch

Shane van Gisbergen, Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet, Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Photo by: Chris Graythen – Getty Images

What about some drivers who didn’t show much in practice and qualifying, but could still be threats? Chris Buescher comes to mind as the driver with the best average finish of anyone at Sonoma in the Next Gen era. He has results of second, fourth, and third over the past three years, but strangely, he wasn’t really showing much on Saturday. He was 16th in practice, never ran more than a five-lap run, and qualified 14th.

Chase Elliott and Michael McDowell are two other drivers we should keep an eye on as well. Elliott has never won at Sonoma, but he has four top fives and six top tens in eight previous starts. He only qualified 13th, but the No. 9 has shown speed at the road courses this year. 

And then there’s McDowell, who was an actual threat at Chicago, leading the most laps before a broken throttle cable derailed his day. He also has a very impressive record at Sonoma with finishes of third, seventh, and second there in the current generation of car. Outside of a practice spin, he was very quiet on Saturday, ultimately qualifying 15th. 

Watch: SVG ‘shaken’ to capture back-to-back Cup Series pole awards